Bad Science? Winter Heat Deaths?


Bad science? https://impactlab.org/research/451000-at-risk/
This study has been a headline on many major sites this morning. Maybe it's a slow news day about El Niño, but it's an example of only looking at model data and not thinking about the real world. The study predicts 3500 hundred additonal heat-related deaths in the US between Sept 2026 and Feb 2027, and 1000 of those in California. Hey folks, this is winter and the number of heat-related deaths (with the possible exception of Sept.) from Oct-Feb is negligible, and an additional +2°F is not going to change that. The study's numbers in the Southern Hemisphere, where it will be summer, may have more validity, but caveat emptor.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com




 

 

Posted

El Niño Myths and Misconceptions

Things I hear almost daily:
- El Niño will soon arrive in California
- El Niños and its impacts are the same
- El Niño and La Niña are storms
- El Niño equates to a rainy winter in California and Elsewhere
- El Niño means disastrous flooding for California
Here's a look at these all-too-prevalent El Niño Misconceptions:
https://ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com





 

Posted

El Niño and California Flooding

El Niño does NOT automatically mean catastrophic flooding in California! A case in point is the Very Strong El Niño of 1997-1998, which saw many locales with twice their normal seasonal rainfall, but it doesn’t rank among the top 10 costliest flood years because that rain was spread out over nearly twice the normal number of rainy days. El Niño can be an overall influence, but many other non-El Niño-related factors like successive storms, saturated conditions, reservoir releases, and extreme tides are the real driving forces for California flooding, whether or not there’s an El Niño. (https://ggweather.com/enso/calif_flood.htm)


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com



 




Posted

Mid-August SST Anomalies - Most Like 1997



This year's mid-August SST Anomalies are continuing to track most closely with the Very Strong El Niño of 1997. But there are still too many variables to say how this will play out in terms of California precipitation and related hazards.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com


 








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Big Storms and El Niño


It does NOT need to be an El Niño year for there to be big storms in the Bay Area. Using the Bay Area Storm Index ( [https://ggweather.com/basi.htm](https://ggweather.com/basi.htm) ) as a metric, only 4 of the 17 biggest events (i.e., BASI ≥ 9.0 ) occured during El Niño; with 7 during La Niña and 6 during Neutral years.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com


 






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Not all Warm Water is El Niño!

Not all Warm Water is El Niño!

There has been recent media attention to warm-water species of marine life being caught along the California coast, and being attributed to the developing El Niño, which is in the eastern tropical Pacific about 2500 miles away. But this much warmer than normal water predated the development of El Niño and was actually in place at the end of last winter's La Niña.


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com






 

Posted

25 Years of Tracking Hot Car Child Deaths


Twenty-five years ago this month, a reporter called with a question I couldn't answer. A 5-month-old child had died after being left in a hot vehicle, and he asked, "How hot could it have been inside that car?" That single question changed the course of the next 25 years of my life.

Unable to find reliable research, I began conducting my own studies of how quickly vehicles heat across a range of temperatures. What started as scientific curiosity soon became a long-term commitment to understanding—and preventing—Pediatric Vehicular Heatstroke (PVH). Along the way, I collaborated with child safety organizations and researchers, including colleagues at Stanford University, resulting in a 2005 paper in Pediatrics that remains one of the most frequently cited studies on vehicle heating and children.

Over the past quarter of a century, I have documented more than 1,000 tragedies and built what has become one of the world's most comprehensive databases of pediatric vehicular heatstroke cases through NoHeatstroke.org. The site is used by researchers, journalists, public health professionals, educators, advocates, and government agencies to better understand the circumstances surrounding PVH deaths.

No one would choose a project like this. Every entry represents a child whose life ended too soon, and a family forever changed. Yet public awareness has grown, research has advanced, and vehicle safety technologies continue to improve. Every child protected because someone remembered to check the back seat is meaningful progress.

As I mark this milestone, I am grateful to the many people and organizations that have shared information, challenged my thinking, and supported this work over the years.

My hope remains simple: that one day this database will no longer be needed. Until then, I will continue documenting these tragedies and working toward the goal that has guided me for the past 25 years—that no family should lose a child in a hot vehicle.













 






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