Golden Gate Weather Services

See https://ggweather.com/farmers/2022/index.html

ABSTRACT
This review subjectively compares last year's 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2021-2022 with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same period.

DATA SOURCES
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
The subjective graphical grading is below.  Overall if a forecast was in the right category (i.e., above normal was forecast and above normal was observed) it was graded as "good". Conversely, if it was the wrong category (i.e., above normal was forecast and below normal was observed then it was graded as "not good". And if the forecast was off by a single category (i.e, above normal was predicted and it was normal) or there was a mixture of above and below in close proximity to one another then I graded it as "mixed".  

Of the 40 precipitation regions compared, 16 (40%) regions were rated as "good", 16 (40%) as "not good" and 8 (20%) as "mixed". Of the 33 temperature regions compared, only 2 (6%) regions rated as "good", 19 (58%) as "not good" and 12 (36%) as "mixed".

However, it is left to the individual reader to do their own comparisons and evaluate the relative usefulness of the forecasts to their particular activity.

See the past reviews at https://ggweather.com/links.html#ofa


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

Totally revamped winter precipitation climatologies related to El Niño and La Niña through this winter's precip and with the new 1991-2020 normals. They really show the range of events that go into making an "average" El Niño or La Niña. See https://ggweather.com/enso2021/.



Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

The current La NIña in the eastern tropical Pacific remains stubbornly in place, with ONI essentially flat-lined on the border between "weak" and "moderate" categories. (https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)



Since at least the first of the year, forecast models have shown warming into "neutral" territory, but to date, reality has not cooperated. (https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table)

And significant upwelling of cool water in the ONI 3.4 region, points toward little change in the short term. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml)


One of the impacts of the ONI remaining in negative territory will be the potential for a more active than average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. This is reflected in the Seasonal Hurricane Forecast issued by Colorado State University earlier this morning. (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html)

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

The 2021-2022 California rainfall roller coaster of alternating wet and dry months continued through January, but unfortunately, the trend for February thus looks to break the pattern. Below are a number of metrics to give it all some context.

San Francisco's January rainfall was the 10th driest in its 173 year period of record. Note that there were three drier Janaurys within the last decade.

San Francisco's season to date rainfall of 16.89" ranks as the 38th driest. Looking at similar (16.89" +/- 1") past amounts, eight of them ended above normal (i.e, 22.89" and six below.  


July 2021 through December 2021 rainfall percent of normal. 

July 2021 through January  2022 rainfall percent of normal. 

Tabular Summary of December and January percent of normal.




Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Phone: (650) 712-1876
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

 

The latest Drought Monitor dropped this morning, and it shows a significant improvement over the past month. The area in the Exceptional Drought has fallen from 28% of the state to less than 1%, and the area in Extreme Drought is now at 16% compared to 52%. But over two-thirds of the state is still in at least Severe Drought or greater and the remaining areas of the state are still Abnormally Dry.
 
While, acknowledging that drought is much more than just precipitation (See “Defining Drought..It’s Not Just Rainfall), the following data will give some context to the extreme rainfall deficits over the past two-and-a-half rainfall seasons. In general, across the state, at least a full season’s normal rainfall would be needed, in the next six months, to balance the rainfall deficit that has accumulated.

The charts that follow are for the state as a whole, California’s 10 Hydrologic Regions, eight major cities, and the three Sierra Precipitation Indices.
 
Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather