La Niña ... Not Fading Away

The current La NIña in the eastern tropical Pacific remains stubbornly in place, with ONI essentially flat-lined on the border between "weak" and "moderate" categories. (

Since at least the first of the year, forecast models have shown warming into "neutral" territory, but to date, reality has not cooperated. (

And significant upwelling of cool water in the ONI 3.4 region, points toward little change in the short term. (

One of the impacts of the ONI remaining in negative territory will be the potential for a more active than average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. This is reflected in the Seasonal Hurricane Forecast issued by Colorado State University earlier this morning. (

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Twitter: @ggweather