A Mini-Analysis of Last year's Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast

See https://ggweather.com/farmers/2022/index.html

This review subjectively compares last year's 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2021-2022 with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same period.

The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

The subjective graphical grading is below.  Overall if a forecast was in the right category (i.e., above normal was forecast and above normal was observed) it was graded as "good". Conversely, if it was the wrong category (i.e., above normal was forecast and below normal was observed then it was graded as "not good". And if the forecast was off by a single category (i.e, above normal was predicted and it was normal) or there was a mixture of above and below in close proximity to one another then I graded it as "mixed".  

Of the 40 precipitation regions compared, 16 (40%) regions were rated as "good", 16 (40%) as "not good" and 8 (20%) as "mixed". Of the 33 temperature regions compared, only 2 (6%) regions rated as "good", 19 (58%) as "not good" and 12 (36%) as "mixed".

However, it is left to the individual reader to do their own comparisons and evaluate the relative usefulness of the forecasts to their particular activity.

See the past reviews at https://ggweather.com/links.html#ofa

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather