A Mini-Analysis of Last year's Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast - Golden Gate Weather Services

A Mini-Analysis of Last year's Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast

See https://ggweather.com/farmers/2022/index.html

ABSTRACT
This review subjectively compares last year's 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2021-2022 with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same period.

DATA SOURCES
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
The subjective graphical grading is below. Overall if a forecast was in the right category (i.e., above normal was forecast and above normal was observed) it was graded as "good". Conversely, if it was the wrong category (i.e., above normal was forecast and below normal was observed then it was graded as "not good". And if the forecast was off by a single category (i.e, above normal was predicted and it was normal) or there was a mixture of above and below in close proximity to one another then I graded it as "mixed".

Of the 40 precipitation regions compared, 16 (40%) regions were rated as "good", 16 (40%) as "not good" and 8 (20%) as "mixed". Of the 33 temperature regions compared, only 2 (6%) regions rated as "good", 19 (58%) as "not good" and 12 (36%) as "mixed".

However, it is left to the individual reader to do their own comparisons and evaluate the relative usefulness of the forecasts to their particular activity.

Image: https://mcusercontent.com/204b7b5836feabf8f536d0226/images/6cfc7eb3-23e3-aac4-b532-dbf416ec8723.jpg
See the past reviews at https://ggweather.com/links.html#ofa

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for 50 years and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

Posted