La Niña in our Future?

Even as El Niño continues to influence this winter's weather, questions are arising about whether there is a La Niña on the horizon for next winter. There seems to be a general impression that La Niña is expected to follow El Niño.  The following is a breakdown of all the El Niño events and what ENSO events occurred the following winter.



In summary and considering all El Niño events, they only transitioned to La Niña less than half the time (i.e., 10 out of 23), with 7 years become Neutral and the final 6 remaining as El Niño. Breaking out just the five strong and very strong El Niño's, 3 of these became La Niña, with the the other two splitting one each into the weak El Niño and Neutral categories.

 

The latest IRI/CPC plume of ENSO predictions for next fall/winter is characterized by a broad range of solutions from remaining as an El Niño to well into the La NIña category. The average, of all the models, straddles the line between neutral and a weak La Niña with -0.5 for Nov-Dec-Jan.



BOTTOM LINES:  First, there is currently no definitive answer about the character of ENSO for next winter; either from past climatology or the forecast models. But more importantly (and as a lesson learned from the current El Niño) is that even within a particular category of ENSO there are lots of subtleties that affect the ultimate impact on related weather patterns. Stay tuned.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

 

 

Posted

Drought Update

 

Yes, in the past two weeks there has been significant improvement to the drought impacting California. But there is still a long way to go.  And in viewing the Drought Monitor,  and other drought products, it should be kept in the context that one-size-does-not-fit-all to measure hydrologic imbalance in California.



Defining drought in California is a conundrum of multi-faceted issues. One aspect is that drought impacts different users in very different ways and on very different time scales. While a local water district might fill all of its reservoirs and have a two-year reserve, another adjacent district might rely more on ground water and imported water and still have a deficit. Likewise, for some sectors of agriculture (the user of more that 75% of the water in the state) there might now be adequate supplies, the same is not true for a different crop.

And an overarching parameter is that drought must also be viewed in the context of the complex California water supply and delivery infrastructure. Consequently, even though the bulk of this winter's has been in the northern half of the state there will be some reduction of impacts statewide. 
 


Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com
 

 

Posted

March Wetness

Watersheds in the northern half of the California made significant gains in first 13 days March. Over a dozen sites recorded in excess of 20 inches, with Strawberry Valley in the Northern Sierra Nevada topping the list (below) with almost 26". This pushed the Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index to 121% of normal. 




Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

Accumulated 13-day precipitation totals in excess of 5 inches.
(Source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/rsa_getprod.php?prod=RNOHYDRSA&wfo=cnrfc)

ID

STATION NAME

Type*(Elev)

13-Day Total

STYC1:

STRAWBERRY VALLEY

G(3808):

25.89

BKLC1:

BUCKS LAKE

G(5750):

24.72

FRTC1:

FOUR TREES

G(5150):

24.36

LPTC1:

LA PORTE

G(5000):

23.64

BDYC1:

BRANDY CREEK

G(1300):

22.79

HONC1:

HONEYDEW

G( 370):

22.28

VNOC1:

VENADO

G(1260):

21.76

SGYC1:

STIRLING CITY

G(3520):

21.48

SHXC1:

SHIP MOUNTAIN (USFS)

G(5304):

21.24

BRRC1:

BRUSH CREEK

G(3560):

21.14

PTEC1:

COOSKIE MOUNTAIN (USFS)

G(2950):

20.65

SMSC1:

SIMS (USFS)

G(2700):

20.15

MCUC1:

MCCLOUD DAM (PGE)

G(2690):

20.13

HMGC1:

HUMBUG

G(6500):

19.13

CDEC1:

CARPENTER RIDGE - CDF

G(4816):

18.96

BNDC1:

BEN LOMOND

G(2598):

18.93

DKFC1:

DEER CREEK FOREBAY

G(4455):

18.51

FBSC1:

FORBESTOWN(PG&E)

G(2840):

18.40

CSXC1:

CAMP 6 RAWS

G(3778):

18.32

SEYC1:

SIERRA CITY

G(4700):

18.29

BUPC1:

BUCKS CREEK PH

G(1760):

18.21

UMNC1:

MT. UMUNHUM

R(3090):

18.19

GRDC1:

GIRARD

G(4800):

18.15

QPFO3:

QUAIL PRAIRIE LOOKOUT

G(3183):

18.06

LSPC1:

SOUTH YUBA - LANGS CROSSI

G(5156):

17.95

BCYC1:

BLUE CANYON (DWR ETI)

G(5290):

17.41

SLTC1:

SLATE CREEK

G(5700):

17.21

DNVC1:

DOWNIEVILLE

G(2920):

17.21

GASC1:

GASQUET R S

G( 384):

17.13

ANPC1:

ANDERSON PEAK

R(3368):

17.01

BOWC1:

BOWMAN LAKE (CDF)

G(5390):

17.01

SHDC1:

SACRAMENTO - SHASTA DAM

G(1075):

16.99

BLUC1:

BLUE CANYON (BUREC)

G(5280):

16.98

FSHC1:

SEED ORCHARD RAWS

G(4355):

16.95

OBRC1:

OAK BOTTOM (NPS)

G(1360):

16.70

CISC1:

WHITE CLOUD (USFS)

G(4321):

16.62

WSPC1:

WHISPERING PINES

G(2700):

16.60

VTCC1:

VENTANA CONE

R(4750):

16.58

HYSC1:

HUYSINK

G(6800):

16.50

PRPC1:

PIT P H #5 (PGE)

G(1458):

16.47

PKCC1:

PIKE COUNTY LOOKOUT (CDF)

G(3714):

16.47

BLU  :

BLUE CANYON ASOS

Z(5276):

16.34

RMFO3:

RED MOUND

G(1753):

16.33

MNAC1:

MINERAL

G(4957):

16.18

DPHC1:

DRUM POWER HOUSE(PG&E)

G(3400):

16.08

BLRC1:

BOULDER CREEK

R( 800):

15.84

DESC1:

DE SABLA

G(2710):

15.82

SCHC1:

SCHULTIES ROAD

R(1400):

15.75

CMVC1:

CAMPTONVILLE (CDF)

G(3500):

15.47

QNYC1:

QUINCY-DWR

G(3408):

15.42

HRZC1:

HIRZ

G(3200):

15.32

GSVC1:

GRASS VALLEY

G(2400):

15.27

MSHC1:

MT. ST. HELENA

R(4140):

15.23

GDLC1:

GOLD LAKE

G(6920):

15.08

PDEC1:

PARADISE (DWR)

G(1725):

14.90

ELKC1:

ELK VALLEY

G(1708):

14.88

SLFC1:

SUGARLOAF RAWS - SHASTA (

G(3214):

14.87

BNEC1:

BEN LOMOND LANDFILL

R( 365):

14.85

LSHC1:

LAKESHORE

G(1100):

14.71

BGVC1:

BRIDGEVILLE  TB

G( 640):

14.64

MRNC1:

SF EEL - MIRANDA  NR

G( 218):

14.54

SETC1:

SECRET TOWN (CDF)

G(2757):

14.34

MCCC1:

MCCLOUD (USFS)

G(3650):

14.33

WRRC1:

WHITE ROCK RIDGE

R(2782):

14.29

MADC1:

RUTH LAKE

G(2760):

14.23

JBGC1:

JARBO GAP (CDF)

G(2490):

14.21

LAYC1:

LAYTONVILLE (CDF)

G(1838):

13.94

YRKC1:

YORKVILLE

G(1100):

13.89

HLLC1:

HELL HOLE RES. (USFS)

G(5240):

13.86

HLCC1:

HILLCREST

G(3440):

13.82

YOUC1:

MOUNT VEEDER

R(1800):

13.80

RLKC1:

RUTH LAKE (USFS)

G(2732):

13.75

ROLC1:

ROLLINS RSVR - BEAR R  CO

G(1945):

13.71

GEOC1:

GEORGETOWN RANGER STATION

G(3011):

13.24

BDMC1:

BALD MOUNTAIN (USFS)

G(4613):

13.21

CSSC1:

CENTRAL SIERRA SNOW LAB S

M(6855):

13.18

WILC1:

WILLITS HOWARD RS

G(1851):

13.16

LEGC1:

SF EEL - LEGGETT

G( 700):

12.96

FTSC1:

EEL - FORT SEWARD

G( 217):

12.95

ANGC1:

ANGWIN  TB

G(1715):

12.92

CRZC1:

CRAZY PEAK (USFS)

G(3970):

12.80

STHC1:

ST HELENA 4SW  TB

G(1780):

12.76

CFCC1:

SCORPION RAWS

G(4400):

12.76

KTPC1:

KETTENPOM

G(3468):

12.75

MDDC1:

MAD RIVER(RAWS)

G(2873):

12.64

NAPC1:

ATLAS PEAK RD  TB

G(1660):

12.64

SHUC1:

SCHOOL HOUSE RAWS

G(2653):

12.30

FTDC1:

SMITH - FORT DICK  NR

G(   0):

12.20

DCFC1:

DRY CREEK FIRE STATION

R( 555):

12.19

MCGC1:

MCGUIRES (CDF)

G( 627):

12.16

CFRC1:

COFFEE RIDGE

G(3040):

12.13

TGSC1:

TRINITY GUARD STATION

G(3870):

11.95

HWKC1:

HAWKEYE (CDF)

G(2024):

11.76

GRRC1:

GREENVILLE

G(3560):

11.71

SOAC1:

SODA CREEK R S

G(1725):

11.70

CLCC1:

CLEAR CREEK

G(3300):

11.60

GNLC1:

GIANELLI

G(8400):

11.58

RTLC1:

RATTLESNAKE

G(6100):

11.56

FMOC1:

FRIEND MOUNTAIN (USFS)

G(4000):

11.50

PLLC1:

NF FEATHER - PRATTVILLE

G(4520):

11.49

YOBC1:

YOLLA BOLLA (USFS)

G(6757):

11.42

BOKO3:

BROOKINGS AGRIMET

G(  35):

11.38

PFRC1:

PETRIFIED FOREST ROAD

R(1124):

11.38

BGCO3:

BIGELOW CAMP

M(5130):

11.33

SNWC1:

SNOW MOUNTAIN

G(5950):

11.32

BLSC1:

BLACK SPRING

G(6500):

11.26

SPHC1:

SULPHUR CK - WHITE SULPHU

R( 310):

11.23

TYRC1:

TAYLOR RIDGE

G(4000):

11.19

ALDC1:

ALDERPOINT

G(1059):

11.10

CHAC1:

CASHMAN

G(4520):

11.10

SBFO3:

ILLINOIS VALLEY AIRPORT

G(1389):

11.04

MTMC1:

MOUNT MADONNA

R(1822):

11.03

WSDC1:

DRY CK - WARM SPRINGS DAM

G( 440):

10.78

BBEC1:

BARNABY (CDF)

G( 820):

10.70

RDVC1:

RODEO VALLEY

G(2428):

10.69

TERC1:

KLAMATH R - TURWAR CK

G(   6):

10.61

YNTC1:

REDWOOD CK - MT VEEDER RD

R( 360):

10.59

BIIC1:

BIG HILL(RAWS)

G(3570):

10.54

SCMC1:

SCOTT MOUNTAIN

G(5900):

10.52

QYRC1:

QUINCY ROAD (USFS)

G(3652):

10.52

CVSC1:

CALAVERAS

G(3360):

10.47

BABC1:

BACKBONE (USFS)

G(4700):

10.44

PGRC1:

PINE GROVE

G(2440):

10.43

THSC1:

TROUGH SPRING

G(4000):

10.38

AGAC1:

ST. MARY'S COLLEGE

R( 620):

10.38

PFHC1:

PACIFIC HOUSE

G(3440):

10.35

PCHC1:

PACIFIC HOUSE

G(3440):

10.35

LEXC1:

LOS GATOS CK - LEXINGTON

R( 665):

10.34

AMBC1:

ALPINE MEADOWS

R(6910):

10.34

WWRC1:

WHITE WOLF (CDF)

G(8000):

10.30

SLPC1:

SLY PARK

G(3530):

10.27

MHS  :

MT SHASTA CITY (ASOS)

Z(3590):

10.26

SMBC1:

SOMES BAR (USFS)

G( 915):

10.17

GRZC1:

GRIZZLY RIDGE

G(6900):

10.17

RRRC1:

READER RANCH (CDF)

G(1968):

10.07

NLSC1:

NOEL SPRING

G(5100):

9.94

BNVC1:

BOONVILLE (CDF)

G( 644):

9.89

LSNC1:

LASSEN LODGE (CDF)

G(4159):

9.89

SHIC1:

SHINGLETOWN

G(3630):

9.88

DDWC1:

DIDDY WELLS

G(1300):

9.88

COGC1:

COLGATE POWERHOUSE

G( 600):

9.86

CDLC1:

RUSSIAN - CLOVERDALE  NR

G( 350):

9.83

MULC1:

MUD LAKE

G(7900):

9.81

WCFC1:

WESTFALL (COE)

G(4880):

9.76

CSTC1:

COHASSET (CDF)

G(1733):

9.74

TAYC1:

TAYLORSVILLE  NELSON ST.

G(3540):

9.70

HICC1:

SQUAW VALLEY - HIGH CAMP

R(8200):

9.66

TIGC1:

TIGER CREEK POWER HOUSE

G(2355):

9.56

OVYC1:

OLEMA VALLEY (NPS)

G(  37):

9.55

UDWC1:

UNDERWOOD (USFS)

G(2560):

9.45

HOOC1:

TRINITY - HOOPA

G( 275):

9.40

UVAC1:

UVAS CK - UVAS RES

R( 489):

9.39

MOUC1:

MOUNT ELIZABETH (USFS)

G(4933):

9.38

CESC1:

CHESTER (CDF)

G(4525):

9.37

STS  :

SANTA ROSA(ASOS)

Z( 114):

9.37

EELC1:

COVELO  TB

G(1500):

9.27

DUDC1:

DUDLEY RANCH - COULTERVIL

G(3654):

9.22

PSTC1:

PINECREST (PGE)

G(5600):

9.20

MHMC1:

MT HAMILTON

R(4198):

9.20

MTZC1:

MT. ZION (CDF)

G(2967):

9.11

SFBC1:

SPRING GAP FOREBAY (PGE)

G(5100):

9.11

RKBC1:

ROCKY BUTTE

R(3401):

9.11

COKC1:

BEAVER (USFS)

G(5700):

9.10

STUC1:

STANISLAUS RAWS

G(6058):

9.07

MGTC1:

MT. GEORGE TRANMER

R(1000):

9.05

SPGC1:

SALT SPRINGS P H (PGE)

G(3700):

8.99

HPDC1:

HOPLAND (CDF)

G(2680):

8.93

HABC1:

HAMILTON BRANCH

G(4560):

8.90

FDDC1:

FIDDLETOWN

R(2160):

8.88

BMEC1:

BUCK MEADOWS (USFS)

G(3160):

8.87

MRPC1:

MARIPOSA GROVE (NPS)

G(6500):

8.86

BTRC1:

BATTLE RIDGE

G(3400):

8.80

COWC1:

LYONS VLY/COW MTN (BLM)

G(3355):

8.79

DNRC1:

DONNER CK - DONNER LK DAM

G(5924):

8.79

YWAC1:

YOSEMITE - WAWONA  NR

G(5185):

8.78

JSDC1:

JERSEYDALE (USFS)

G(3900):

8.76

TLHC1:

TELEGRAPH HILL

G(3730):

8.72

BRMO3:

BIG RED MOUNTAIN

M(6050):

8.62

HPYC1:

HAPPY CAMP RANGER STA

Z(1120):

8.61

KELC1:

KONOCTI RAWS NR KELSEYVIL

G(2100):

8.60

LCRC1:

LICHAU CREEK

R(1800):

8.58

ONSC1:

KLAMATH - ORLEANS

G( 354):

8.57

BLCC1:

BLOODS CREEK

G(7200):

8.54

ECKC1:

ALDER SPRINGS (CDF)

G(4465):

8.51

BNGC1:

BANGOR (CDF)

G( 839):

8.48

CNFC1:

CRANE FLAT LOOKOUT (NPS)

G(6634):

8.44

SWBC1:

SAWYERS BAR RS (USFS)

G(2192):

8.28

POSC1:

POISON RIDGE

G(6900):

8.28

OWNC1:

OWENS CAMP (USFS)

G(5240):

8.25

DVBC1:

DANVILLE LIBRARY

R( 364):

8.22

ORDC1:

FEATHER - OROVILLE DAM

G( 900):

8.20

RCNC1:

RICHMOND CITY HALL

R(  55):

8.20

WITC1:

WHITMORE (CDF)

G(2499):

8.08

WEAC1:

WEAVERVILLE RANGER STATIO

G(2040):

8.07

JONC1:

JOHNSON RANCH

R( 755):

8.05

UKI  :

UKIAH

Z( 626):

8.03

RSAC1:

SANTA ROSA (CDF)

G( 599):

7.97

SLMC1:

STANISLAUS MEADOW

G(7750):

7.92

VIOC1:

MANZANITA LAKE (USFS)

G(5660):

7.91

OITC1:

COIT RANCH

R(1696):

7.91

WWDC1:

WESTWOOD (CDF)

G(6155):

7.91

CEC  :

CRESCENT CITY

Z(  56):

7.84

CRLO3:

CRATER LAKE OR (CO-OP)

P(6475):

7.81

HETC1:

TUOLUMNE - HETCH HETCHY

G(3870):

7.77

TGCC1:

TUOLUMNE - TUOLMNE MEADOW

G(3830):

7.76

CYVC1:

COYOTE - THOMPSON VALLEY

G(5540):

7.76

MAGC1:

MAGOON (COE)

G(3150):

7.72

GOYC1:

CASTRO VALLEY

R( 754):

7.71

ORIC1:

REDWOOD CK - ORICK

G(   5):

7.68

ESPC1:

ESPERANZA (CDF)

G(2559):

7.67

KNXC1:

KNOXVILLE CREEK (BLM)

G(2550):

7.66

CODC1:

COW RIDGE

R(2998):

7.66

BLBC1:

STONY CK - BLACK BUTTE DA

G( 426):

7.64

BASC1:

CRANE VALLEY (PGE)

G(3400):

7.63

WWNC1:

WAWONA (NPS)

G(4231):

7.62

MPCC1:

MAPLE CREEK (CDF)

G(1680):

7.58

ACMC1:

ARROYO CORTE MADERA - MIL

R(   2):

7.57

KSPC1:

KAISER POINT

G(9131):

7.55

NBRC1:

BIG ROCK RAWS

G(1500):

7.55

LPRC1:

CARMEL - LOS PADRES RES

R(1058):

7.51

PLTC1:

PILOT HILL (CDF)

G(1250):

7.50

EPKC1:

EAGLE PEAK (CDF)

G(3713):

7.48

CCEC1:

COW CREEK

G(2840):

7.45

KRKC1:

KETTLE ROCK

G(7300):

7.37

ECOC1:

ECHO PEAK

M(7670):

7.37

MUDC1:

MUD SPRINGS

G(3400):

7.36

WVI  :

WATSONVILLE(ASOS)

Z( 141):

7.36

PCKC1:

PECKINPAH

G(5150):

7.34

ADRC1:

AUBURN DAM RIDGE

G(1200):

7.28

YYVC1:

YOSEMITE VALLEY

G(4200):

7.27

MRIC1:

MARIPOSA R S (CDF)

G(2100):

7.26

MYV  :

MARYSVILLE(ASOS)

Z(  62):

7.24

MPOC1:

RANGER STATION - MARIPOSA

G(2231):

7.21

MBBC1:

MERCED - BRICEBERG  NR

G(1150):

7.20

SVMO3:

SEVENMILE MARSH

M(5700):

7.20

DKYC1:

DINKEY RAWS (USFS)

G(5668):

7.20

TCAC1:

TRINITY CAMP

G(3308):

7.16

MMTC1:

MOUNT TOM (USFS)

G(9083):

7.14

LGSC1:

LOG SPRING

G(5100):

7.13

MAMC1:

MAMMOTH PASS

G(9300):

7.13

HNTC1:

HUNTINGTON LAKE

G(7020):

7.13

COEC1:

MORGAN HILL 6NE COE PARK

R(2739):

7.13

ABAC1:

ALHAMBRA CREEK

R( 800):

7.09

BAB  :

BEALE AFB

Z( 113):

7.08

CICC1:

CHICO (CDF)

G( 237):

7.07

KNNC1:

KNEELAND (CDF)

G(2737):

7.07

LAMC1:

EF RUSSIAN - COYOTE DAM

G( 670):

7.07

VCB  :

VACAVILLE(ASOS)

Z( 108):

7.06

EBTC1:

EBBETTS PASS SNOTEL

M(8765):

7.02

EYSC1:

POINT REYES STATION

R(  22):

7.01

RDD  :

REDDING

Z( 502):

6.97

MSFO3:

MT STELLA

G(4700):

6.94

TMRC1:

TAMARACK SUMMIT

G(7613):

6.93

SMRC1:

SANTA MARGARITA BOOSTER

G(1100):

6.92

SFFC1:

MARSH CK FIRE DEPT

R( 680):

6.88

BGBC1:

BIG BAR R S (USFS)

G(1270):

6.87

PYPC1:

PINYON PEAK

R(5264):

6.86

SMCC1:

SAN MARCOS PASS

R(2300):

6.79

CTNC1:

COTTONWOOD CREEK

G(3400):

6.78

GVYC1:

GRAVEYARD MEADOW

G(6900):

6.74

NTRC1:

NATURE POINT

G(5150):

6.74

YUBC1:

FEATHER - YUBA CITY

G(  80):

6.73

BENC1:

BEN BOLT NR LATROBE CRK

G( 905):

6.69

GTMC1:

GOAT MOUNTAIN

G(4520):

6.67

BSNC1:

BATTERSON (USFS)

G(3160):

6.62

SHNC1:

SHANTI ASHRAMA

R(2300):

6.60

MTQC1:

MOUNTAIN REST (USFS)

G(4100):

6.56

SDCC1:

SADDLE CAMP

G(3850):

6.55

GIOC1:

PEABODY RANCH

R( 472):

6.50

DBEC1:

DILLON BEACH

R( 455):

6.50

AROC1:

PAJARO - CHITTENDEN

G(  82):

6.48

HYFC1:

HAYFORK RAWS

G(2323):

6.45

CPLC1:

CAPLES LAKE

G(7980):

6.44

ACV  :

ARCATA AIRPORT

Z( 223):

6.43

GNSC1:

GREEN SPRING (CDF)

G( 999):

6.43

SRAC1:

SONORA PASS

M(8827):

6.42

OKSC1:

OAKLAND SOUTH (CDF)

G(1095):

6.41

GRMC1:

GREEN MOUNTAIN

G(7900):

6.38

SHVC1:

SHAVER (CDF)

G(5800):

6.36

MTTC1:

MINARETS RAWS

G(5193):

6.35

BMOC1:

BALD MOUNTAIN (BUREC)

G(4720):

6.34

REFC1:

REFUGIO

R(2610):

6.33

NFRC1:

NORTH FORK (USFS)

G(2663):

6.33

OVE  :

OROVILLE(ASOS)

Z( 190):

6.26

SFOC1:

SAN FRANCISCO - DOWNTOWN

G( 150):

6.24

MIAC1:

MIAMI (USFS)

G(4334):

6.22

COUC1:

MERCED RIVER (BLM)

G(2600):

6.19

BOGC1:

BOGARD RS (USFS)

G(5686):

6.18

SMF  :

SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL

Z(  20):

6.16

RTPC1:

ROSEVILLE WATER TRMT PLT

R( 410):

6.15

RSPC1:

ROSE PEAK

G(3060):

6.10

WSHC1:

WISHON DAM (PGE)

G(6550):

6.09

FNWC1:

FENCE MEADOW (USFS)

G(5048):

6.09

TCRC1:

THOMES CK - PASKENTA

G( 720):

6.08

APC  :

NAPA(ASOS)

Z(  14):

6.07

SJBC1:

FREMONT PEAK

R(2838):

6.07

CHWC1:

CHEWS RIDGE

R(5040):

6.04

CSCO3:

COLD SPRINGS CAMP

M(5940):

6.04

HSSC1:

HOSSACK (COE)

G(7100):

6.01

MCFC1:

METCALF GAP (CDF)

G(3118):

5.99

WISC1:

COUNTY LINE (BLM)NR WILBE

G(2085):

5.98

COYC1:

COYOTE CK - COYOTE RES

R( 802):

5.91

PRRC1:

PRAIRIE CITY

R( 311):

5.87

FRLO3:

FOURMILE LAKE

M(5970):

5.86

TABC1:

LAS TABLAS (CDF)

G( 970):

5.83

OTTC1:

DEER CK - SCOTT RD

R( 170):

5.82

PLIC1:

ARBUCKLE BASIN (CDF)

G(2452):

5.78

BIMC1:

BIG MEADOWS (DWR)

G(7603):

5.78

RGCC1:

ROGERS CAMP (COE)

G(6200):

5.76

GRIC1:

FEATHER - GRIDLEY  NR

G(  92):

5.75

WLMO3:

WILLIAMS 1 NW

P(1450):

5.74

BCDO3:

BILLIE CREEK DIVIDE

M(5280):

5.73

BTPC1:

BEAR TRAP MEADOW (COE)

G(6800):

5.72

OGOC1:

OGO RANGER STATION

G(1300):

5.71

BKAC1:

BROKEN ARROW RANCH

R(3083):

5.65

NMSC1:

STANISLAUS - NEW MELONES

G(1400):

5.64

MHBC1:

COSUMNES - MICHIGAN BAR

R( 185):

5.63

MIPC1:

POVERTY RIDGE (CDF)

G(2066):

5.61

LICC1:

LINCOLN (CDF)

G( 210):

5.60

ASRC1:

ARROYO SECO (USFS)

G( 980):

5.60

HRLC1:

HERALD

R(  71):

5.59

LVMC1:

MALLORY RIDGE (CDF)

G(2040):

5.59

DLCC1:

DOYLE CROSSING

G(5670):

5.57

SERC1:

SIERRAVILLE RS

G(4975):

5.53

MBKC1:

NF KINGS - MEADOW BROOK

G(8150):

5.52

HIDC1:

FRESNO - HIDDEN DAM

G(2580):

5.51

HSQC1:

HIGH SIERRA (CDF)

G(7403):

5.51

EGCC1:

EAGLE CREEK (COE)

G(6700):

5.51

CAEC1:

CALERO

R( 550):

5.51

SGEC1:

STONY CK - STONY GORGE RE

G( 800):

5.48

QUAC1:

QUAKING ASPEN

G(7200):

5.46

RNDC1:

ROUND MOUNTAIN (CDF)

G(5255):

5.45

UTCC1:

UNITED TECH CORP

R( 735):

5.45

PIEC1:

PIERCE CK (CDF)

G(5800):

5.44

PTPC1:

POINT PINOS

R(  27):

5.42

CZFO3:

CRAZYMAN FLAT SNOTEL

M(6180):

5.41

WDDC1:

WOODLAND

R(  70):

5.39

BMTC1:

BLACK MOUNTAIN

G(3560):

5.39

CIFO3:

CINNAMON 5NW

G(4636):

5.38

RVLC1:

FIRE STATION #2

R( 150):

5.36

EXQC1:

MERCED - MERCED FALLS  BL

G( 879):

5.35

DVSC1:

LAKE DAVIS - PORTOLA  NR

G(5768):

5.34

SYFC1:

STONYFORD(COOP)

G(1168):

5.33

RUBC1:

RUBICON #2

M(7607):

5.33

THOC1:

TAHOE CITY CROSS

M(6790):

5.33

TMEC1:

TUOLUMNE MEADOWS (NPS)

G(8800):

5.32

EPRC1:

LITTLE STONY CK - EAST PA

G(1200):

5.31

VABC1:

VAN BREMMER (USFS)

G(5303):

5.31

ICPC1:

INDEPENDENCE CK - INDEPEN

M(7003):

5.30

DVRC1:

DAVIS RANCH

G( 550):

5.28

TRUC1:

TRUCKEE #2

M(6499):

5.28

AGBC1:

ARCADE CK - GREENBACK LAN

R( 110):

5.28

ANTC1:

ANTELOPE LAKE - TAYLORSVI

G(4960):

5.27

BHNC1:

CHOWCHILLA - BUCHANAN DAM

G( 450):

5.22

DNPC1:

BALCH P H (PGE)

G(1720):

5.22

WVTC1:

WOLVERTON (NPS)

G(5240):

5.21

EVGC1:

EVERGREEN

R( 450):

5.21

SWNO3:

SWAN LAKE MOUNTAIN

M(6830):

5.20

BUNC1:

BUNNING RANCH (COE)

G(1520):

5.18

TUMC1:

TUOLUMNE MEADOWS

G(8600):

5.17

LSRC1:

SANTA ROSA CK - CAMBRIA

R(  80):

5.17

TORC1:

MT TORO

R(2338):

5.16

DBLC1:

DIABLO GRANDE

G(1861):

5.14

SAPC1:

METRO AIR PARK

R(  14):

5.12

CAHC1:

HASTINGS (CDF)

G(1824):

5.10

MRY  :

MONTEREY(ASOS)

Z( 217):

5.09

ANDC1:

COYOTE CK - ANDERSON DAM

R( 645):

5.08

BRWC1:

BEAR - WHEATLAND  NR

G(  72):

5.08

GNFC1:

GIANT FOREST (COE)

G(6650):

5.08

BKSC1:

BROOKS (CDF)

G( 355):

5.07

CMAC1:

CAMANCHE (CDF)

G( 368):

5.06

RSJC1:

RANCHO SAN JULIAN

R( 640):

5.05

VLSC1:

VALLEY SPRINGS 2SW

R( 831):

5.04

OKHC1:

OAKHURST (COE)

G(2230):

5.02

SFO  :

SAN FRANCISCO WSO-INTL AI

Z(  13):

5.02

RBAC1:

ROBLA CK - RIO LINDA

R(  42):

5.01

 

 

Posted

Wettest San Francisco Rainfall Season Since 2010-11

With today's rain, the rainfall season (July 1 to June 30) in downtown San Francisco is already the wettest since 2010-2011; making it the highest total in the past five seasons. As of 6 pm today, the SF total had reached 18.42 inches. (See http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=wrh&sid=SFOC1&num=64

Previous Seasons:
2010-2011 = 28.87"
2011-2012 = 15.64"
2012-2013 = 16.61"
2013-2014 = 12.54"
2014-2015 = 18.09"
2015-2016 = 18.42" ...and counting.

The rainfall through 6 pm has been 0.81", bringing the March total to 3.69",  This is already higher than the March normal of 3.29"

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com



Posted

Review of CPC's Winter 2015-16 Forecasts


With meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) at a close, it's always interesting to look back and see how well it was, or wasn't, forecast. Below is the 90-day outlook issued in November by the Climate Prediction Center along with the precipitation and temperatures anomalies that were actually occurred.

My big takeaway is that the precipitation forecast was pretty much out of the "El Niño Playbook" and that this winter's El Niño impacts were atypical to say the least. ( See El Niño 2015-16 becoming Poster Child for "All El Niños are not the same!")  Consequently, most of the West Coast was 180 degrees out of phase with expectations along with the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.



A more complete breakdown, including monthly forecasts, can be found at http://ggweather.com/cpc/2016/, and previous winters can be found at http://ggweather.com/links.html#research

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

 

Posted

Sierra Nevada Watersheds Make Impressive Gains

httpsgallerymailchimpcom204b7b5836feabf8f536d0226images2614bb99-66e8-4dcb-b0e6-62fec44ffdfejpg

 

Rain and snow in the past 72 hours across California have pushed precipitation amounts in the Sierra Nevada watersheds to above normal through March 6th. This the highest they have been on this date in five years. The Northern Sierra Nevada 8-Station index picked up over 6 inches of rain, while the Central Sierra 5-Station Index and the Tulare Basin 6-Station Index received 3.86 and 2.20 inches respectively.

httpsgallerymailchimpcom204b7b5836feabf8f536d0226imagesf30cc09b-db3b-4331-b2e4-a54e12f3b4capng
For the Northern Sierra this brings the rainfall season precipitation to date to 107% of normal, the Central Sierra to 106% and the Tulare Basin to 100%. 

httpsgallerymailchimpcom204b7b5836feabf8f536d0226imagesbe2d502a-2fe9-4f41-8638-c1d796e67dfcpng
Note: There will be a minor discrepancies between these figures and those published by Calif. DWR which uses the Oct. 1 Water Year instead of the historical rainfall season of July 1 to June 30. DWR also does not use the standard 30-year climatological normal (1981-2010) but rather non-standard average period of 1922-1998 for the 8-Station Index and 1961-2010 for the 5 and 6-Station Indices.   

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

 

 

 

Posted

Dry with Some Record Warmth for February Across California

 

See http://ggweather.com/calif/feb2016.htm

Average maximum temperatures across California for February 2016 ranged from "just" well above normal (i.e., Eureka at +2.5 deg F) to downright toasty with average monthly maxima anomalies of between +6.1 and +9.4 degrees.  Four of the eight major stations set records for all-time warmest maxima for the month. 
                                       2016    Prev record
    San Jose                    69.0    67.8 in 2015
    Sacramento Ex AP    67.6    67.1 in 1988
    Los Angeles - City     77.5    75.6 in 1954
    San Diego                 74.4    72.1 in 1954

At the same time, rainfall across the Golden State was paltry at best, with values ranging mostly between 10 and 20% of normal.  The exceptions were at opposite ends of the state with 58% of normal in Eureka and only 2% of normal in San Diego.

This allowed rainfall season (Jul - Jun) totals to drop below normal for most of California, though prog charts for the next two weeks should produce  very strong upward movement to back above normal.  Currently: http://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm 

Likewise, snowfall totals have slipped below normal, but should also show a strong recovery in coming weeks. Currently: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services  

 

Posted

El Niño 2015-16 becoming Poster Child for "All El Niños are not the same!"

El Niño 2015-16 becoming Poster Child for "All El Niños are not the same!"

 

Among the mantras from the past year by myself, SF State Professor Dr. John Monteverdi and many other responsible meteorologists, are that 1) each El Niño is unique, 2) the number of past events is statistically very small for comparison, and 3) that there are "no guarantees". To date many of the blogs, webpages and associated articles have look at the similarities to previous strong and very strong El Niño events.

However, as the El Niño 2015-2016 and its impacts continue to unfold, Dr. Monteverdi and I felt it's important to look at how this year is dissimilar in many ways to previous events.  To that end we have co-authored the following page: Differences Between 2015-16 El Niño and Previous Strong and Very Strong  Events.   

Below is one of the figures from that page, which breaks down the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for each of the strong and very strong El Niños for all four of the Niño sampling regions in the tropical Pacific. Other data includes how the circulation patterns are different along with how the November through January precipitation and temperature patterns don't match very well with previous events, 



Coming soon, will be a separate page with how the second half of the winter during these events has looked.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services

Dr. John Monterverdi, CCM
San Francisco State University

Posted

January 2016 Wet and Mild Across California

In the major cities across California the January 2016 rainfall ranged from "just" 102% of normal in Los Angeles to over 200% of normal at Redding (213%) and Fresno (202%). Rain in the critical Sierra Nevada watersheds ranged from 175% of normal in the Northern Sierra 8-Station Index  to 119% of normal in the Tulare Basin 6-Station Index. (See http://ggweather.com/calif/jan2016.htm)

 

The rainfall season- (July 1 to June 30) to-date totals and percentages of normal for 46 California stations are available at: http://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm.

Monthly temperatures were generally warmer than normal though maxima in Redding and LA slipped in as cooler than normal.  (See http://ggweather.com/calif/jan2016.htm)

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

 

 

Posted

What's Different with El Niño 2015-16?


 

As we turn the corner into the second half of the rainfall season, it is becoming increasing apparent that the ongoing El Niño is becoming the poster child for "all El Niños are not alike!". While it is still way too early to know what this will ultimately mean for California's rainfall season, it is noteworthy to look at some of the differences.

While most attention has been focused on the Niño 3.4 region (see map) which has been very similar to the very strong El Niño event of 1997-1998, there have been some significant differences in the adjacent regions. The Niño 4 region to the west alongthe equator has been warmer than 1997-98, while Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions have been cooler.



There have also been significant differences in the monthly rainfall patterns compared to previous strong and very strong events.  The following sample is for the San Francisco, Los Angeles, the Northern Sierra Nevada (8-station index) and the Central Sierra (5-station index), with monthly totals for November and December and for January through the 26th.



Please insert the usual caveats, that it's still only the midpoint in the rainfall season and we don't know how these differences will impact the remainder of the rainy months. But it is different, so stay tuned.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com 

Posted