Statewide rainfall percentages of normal through the first seven months of the rainfall season range from dry in the normal to very dry in the south. See http://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm. And an analysis of previous seasons for key locations around the state with low totals for the first seven months does NOT bode well for the likelihood of at least normal rainfall for the 2017-2018 season.
Summarizing the tables below:
San Francisco: This is the 47th driest season through January. Only 2 seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. San Jose: This is the 32nd driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Santa Rosa: This is the 37th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. San Jose: This is the 32nd driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Eureka: This is the 50th driest season through January. Only 3 seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Redding: This is the 16th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. 8 Station Northern Sierra Index: This is the 29th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Sacramento: This is the 47th driest season through January. Only 1 season that has been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Fresno: This is the 8th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. 5 Station Central Sierra Index: This is the 4th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. 6 Station Southern Central Sierra Index: This is the 4tht driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. Los Angeles: This is the 11th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall. San Diego: This is the 16th driest season through January. No seasons that have been this dry or drier have ended the full season with at least normal rainfall.
BIG CAVEAT: Please keep in mind that a below normal rainfall season does NOT necessarily equal drought. In addition to the rainfall, drought in a particular region of the state is also a function of stored surface and ground water, as well as the infrastructure to import water from other parts of the state. It can also vary by usage as the needs of a rancher needing water to grow grass to feed his cattle is very different than a water manager in an urban area.
