October Rain Only "A Good Start" - Golden Gate Weather Services

October Rain Only "A Good Start"

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October 2016 was a wet month in the northern two-thirds of the state but the south continued to be pretty dry. (See: summary) Monthly rainfall ranged from over 450% of normal at Eureka and Sacramento, while Los Angeles and San Diego only had 79% and 12% of their normal October rain respectively. But these numbers need to be put into context as October normals are relatively small and there is not a statistically significant relationship between October rainfall and how the rest of the rainfall season (July 1 to June 30) ultimately ends up.

San Francisco’s 2.43 inches for the month is 217% of normal (1.12”), but this ranks as only the 23^rd wettest October going back to 1849. The wettest was 7.28” in 1889 (below). One factor affecting the perception of it being a very rainy month were the number of days of rain. This year there were 12 days of measurable rain in San Francisco, the second highest number on record. The most was 13 days in that very wet October of 1889.

Looking at the 25 wettest Octobers (below) there is not a correlation to how the seasons ultimately ended up; other than being a “good start” by saturating the soil to enhance future runoff and significantly reducing the fire danger. Eleven of those 25 wettest Octobers actually ended up below the 168-year average of 21.57”. This including the 2^nd driest season on record; 1975-1976 when the season ended with a paltry 8.05”.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for 50 years and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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