El Niño Just Keeps Hanging On - Golden Gate Weather Services

El Niño Just Keeps Hanging On

Meteorologists are singing the Supreme's 1967 song "You Keep Me Hangin' On" as the current weak El Niño just won't go away.

The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) checked in at the minimal 0.5 level for JFM to remain barely in the weak El Nino category. This is now the 5th consecutive 3-month period at or above that threshold making this now an "official" El Nino event.

The latest CPC El Nino Advisory keeps a 70% chance of at least a minimal El Niño continuing through the summer and a 60% chance through next autumn. And the IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume actually shows a slight warming of the ONI through the next 6 months.

It is relatively rare that a warm ENSO event persists from one winter through the summer months into the following winter. Since 1950 the only three previous instances were the weak 1953-54 El Niño that lasted into the 1954-55 winter and then the moderate 1968-69 and 1986-87 events that also persisted into the following winter. (http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for 50 years and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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