El Niño Forecasts - Past and Present - Golden Gate Weather Services

El Niño Forecasts - Past and Present

El Niño Forecasts - Past and Present

Following yesterday's latest NOAA El Niño Advisory there is, similar to last spring, already talk about the upcoming "strong El Nino". However, a look at the actual model data from April 2014 and April 2015 does not support this. [Neither did the forecast from last year]

The most robust 2015 model is the NCEP CVSv2, but it was also one of the strongest last year and we know how that came out!

Yes, we are starting off warmer (i.e., a higher Oceanic Niño Index) than last year and this certainly portends the current event persisting and being stronger than last year. But from what the models are actually saying it's still early to say if or when it will reach the strong threshold.

And then there are the comparisons to the very strong event of the winter of 1997-98! From what I am seeing so far, it is WAY too early to compare the two. The current (FMA) ONI is at +0.6, while the ONI for FMA 1997 was already at 1.4. Likewise, the water temperatures of the upper 300 meter along the equator is +1.4 anomaly, while back in 1997 it was +1.9. There are lots of other comparative metrics to look at and a significant Kelvin wave is bringing warmer subsurface water into the eastern tropical Pacific; but this also happened last year about this time.

Bottom line: too early to tell.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

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Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for 50 years and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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