CPC Winter Outlooks and an Updated El Niño Forecast



With the latest NOAA 2018-2019 Winter Outlook just released, here's how the previous three CPC Winter Precipitation Outlooks "verified". At least here on the West Coast they seem to have pretty much missed the mark.

And the just updated IRI/CPC Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) forecast is significantly warmer than last month's; pushing the winter months into the moderate El Niño category.

However, even in the moderate El Niño category there is still a large range of solutions and little predictive value. See https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso/ca_elnino.html for the California and https://www.ggweather.com/enso2016/us_elnino.html for the US.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather