A Different Flavor of La Niña? - Golden Gate Weather Services

A Different Flavor of La Niña?

Unlike those picture puzzles where you are asked to find subtle differences between images, a look at the NASA sea surface height anomaly images for the past three weak La Niñas (1995, 2000, 2011) plus this year (2016), leaves little doubt that what's going on in the eastern Pacific is not subtle at all. The most striking difference is the anomalous warm water from the equator north to about 25 degrees north. This area warmed in conjunction with last year's very strong El Niño and may have contributed to the atypical winter along the west Coast of North America (see "Differences Between 2015-16 El Niño and Previous Strong and Very Strong Events").

Image: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/204b7b5836feabf8f536d0226/images/84d43419-ba6e-4a35-bfa6-f247c1775e3d.jpg

With the current Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) already at weak La Niña levels, tomorrow's updated CPC ENSO Advisory is likely to up the odds for a La Niña this fall and winter. But can we still use the standard "La Niña playbook" of looking at past events as an indicator of broad-scale for West Coast precipitation patterns for this winter? Last winter the conventional wisdom for the impacts of a very strong El Niño did not work out per previous events. Consequently, it looks like extreme caution should be exercised in looking for patterns based upon the climatological past related to the prospects for current La Niña.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

Miscellaneous La Niña Resources (use with caution):
La Niña Winter Precipitation & Temperature Climatology
California Climatology of La Niña Events and Precipitation
California Precipitation Climatology for Cool Neutral and Weak La Niña Events

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for 50 years and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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