Would the amount of rain in the Carolina’s this past week be enough to end the California Drought? Not even close! - Golden Gate Weather Services

Would the amount of rain in the Carolina’s this past week be enough to end the California Drought? Not even close!

Would the amount of rain in the Carolina’s this past week be enough to end the California Drought? Not even close!

Several recent news reports have stated that the rain that fell over North and South Carolina this past week would be enough to erase the California drought. this was based on comparing an estimated 11 trillion gallons that the Carolinas received this past week to an amount from a NASA study that also used an 11 trillion gallon figure needed for California. However the numbers don’t add up.

It’s been estimated that the average rainfall that fell across the Carolinas was 10.4 inches. With a total area for North and South Carolina of about 85,000 square miles that actually equates to about 15.5 trillion gallons. [Specifically 1” of water over 1 sq. mile= 17,378,560 gallons; times 10.4” of rain, times 85,839 sq. miles equals 15,514,285,403,136 gallons]

Now, looking at California. The statewide average rainfall for California is about 24 inches, and in round numbers the 4-year rainfall deficit is approximately a year’s worth of rainfall. Given the total California area of over 163,000 square miles that’s a phenomenal 68 trillion gallon deficit, or over four times the rain that fell on the Carolinas! [Specifically 1” over 1 sq. mile= 17,378,560 gallons, times 24” of rain, times 163,694 sq. miles equals 68,274,384,015,360 gallons]

Some of the confusion arises from last December's NASA study that had a headline of "Needed: 11 Trillions Gallons to Replenish California Drought". However, reading the entire article reveals the 11 trillion gallon amount was for only the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins. And finally, it should be noted that to "end the drought" in some areas of California it may take more than a year's worth and in other areas less.

Update (10/9): Please note the rainfall amounts for California (above) are only to make up the deficit. To "end the drought" we would need to make up most of teh deficit, PLUS the normal rainfall of the winter of 2015-16, or another 24 inches. Bottom line, we would be looking at as much 8 times the rains that flooded the Carolinas.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for over four-nine decades and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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