Why This Isn't Really the First El Niño Storm of the Season - Golden Gate Weather Services

Why This Isn't Really the First El Niño Storm of the Season

Why This Isn't Really the First El Niño Storm of the Season

Many headlines in recent days have been touting the current and upcoming rain as the first El Niño storm(s) of the year. In reality, every weather system we have seen in California, and elsewhere, have been influenced by El Niño; going back to its strengthening in the eastern tropical Pacific last fall. And every storm will continue to have to some "El Niño DNA" in them, well into spring.

The pattern that we saw in December, with a series of colder storms from the Gulf of Alaska, were not as characteristic of El Niño, but they were certainly related as distant cousins.

The current pattern, with a series of storms moving almost directly west to east (i.e., zonal flow) across the Pacific in the middle latitudes, is what is more commonly thought of as a "typical" El Niño pattern.

This pattern is more closely related to the impact of El Niño on the jetstream pattern in the Pacific; and to extend the familial metaphor are more like brothers and sisters. This is very reminiscent to what we saw in January through March of 1998. It should be noted that during those months in 1998 that while there were lots of rainy days, most of the daily amounts were in the moderate category and not heavy rain days.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for over four-nine decades and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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