tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:/posts Golden Gate Weather Services 2026-07-22T15:54:04Z Jan Null tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2312177 2026-07-22T15:03:53Z 2026-07-22T15:54:04Z 25 Years of Tracking Hot Car Child Deaths

Twenty-five years ago this month, a reporter called with a question I couldn't answer. A 5-month-old child had died after being left in a hot vehicle, and he asked, "How hot could it have been inside that car?" That single question changed the course of the next 25 years of my life.

Unable to find reliable research, I began conducting my own studies of how quickly vehicles heat across a range of temperatures. What started as scientific curiosity soon became a long-term commitment to understanding—and preventing—Pediatric Vehicular Heatstroke (PVH). Along the way, I collaborated with child safety organizations and researchers, including colleagues at Stanford University, resulting in a 2005 paper in Pediatrics that remains one of the most frequently cited studies on vehicle heating and children.

Over the past quarter of a century, I have documented more than 1,000 tragedies and built what has become one of the world's most comprehensive databases of pediatric vehicular heatstroke cases through NoHeatstroke.org. The site is used by researchers, journalists, public health professionals, educators, advocates, and government agencies to better understand the circumstances surrounding PVH deaths.

No one would choose a project like this. Every entry represents a child whose life ended too soon, and a family forever changed. Yet public awareness has grown, research has advanced, and vehicle safety technologies continue to improve. Every child protected because someone remembered to check the back seat is meaningful progress.

As I mark this milestone, I am grateful to the many people and organizations that have shared information, challenged my thinking, and supported this work over the years.

My hope remains simple: that one day this database will no longer be needed. Until then, I will continue documenting these tragedies and working toward the goal that has guided me for the past 25 years—that no family should lose a child in a hot vehicle.













 






This email was sent to jan.null@sjsu.edu
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2308069 2026-07-10T22:33:10Z 2026-07-10T22:48:19Z Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity During Strong/Very Strong El Niño Events

A look at decreased Atlantic and increased E Pacific tropical cyclone activity during Strong and Very Strong El Niño years.





 






This email was sent to jan.null@sjsu.edu
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2306837 2026-07-07T03:31:36Z 2026-07-07T03:41:14Z Developing El Niño is Already Atypical

The latest 3-month RONI (Relative Oceanic Niño Index) for April-May-June is at +0.47, just shy of the threshold for a weak El Niño. But looking at the sharp upward trajectory (and latest monthly values) of the current event, it is obvious we are headed much higher.

Comparing it to the 7 previous Strong and Very Strong El Niños, this year is starting lower than any of the previous events at this point in the year, and the only one that transitioned from La Niña. But what does all this mean in terms of the developing El Niño and, more so, on what the actual impacts will be? Stay tuned.






 








This email was sent to jnull@noheatstroke.org
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2304333 2026-06-30T22:00:28Z 2026-07-02T15:09:49Z 2025-2026 California Rainfall Season in Review

 

Today marks the end of the California rainfall season, with the overall picture of near-normal rainfall for most of Northern California, a bit above normal for Central California, and mostly well above normal for Southern California. Statewide, with the exception of Pine Flat Reservoir, all of the major reservoirs are above their seasonal averages. And of note, this past winter was a Weak La NIña, and the CPC Winter Precipitation outlook reflected a "typical" La Niña pattern of drier than normal in SoCal! 

Links:
https://ggweather.com/ca2025rain.htm
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain
https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/llarc.ind.php


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com



 









This email was sent to jan.null@sjsu.edu
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2301660 2026-06-22T14:46:18Z 2026-06-22T14:46:19Z Strong & Very El Niño and California Precipitation Strong & Very El Niño and California Precipitation

An updated and more detailed climatology of California Precipitation during Strong and Very Strong El Niño events can now be found at https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/ca_elnino_strong.html .

The climatology for all El Niño events has also been updated and improved at https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/ca_elnino.html

It would be relatively straightforward for someone to do similar climatologies for the other western states using the Western Region Climate Center’s State Climate Tracker page at https://wrcc.dri.edu/my/climate/tracker. I would be happy to discuss and share the Excel template that I developed.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2298547 2026-06-11T21:11:29Z 2026-06-11T21:11:30Z El Niño - Some Context for California Precipitation this Winter El Niño - Some Context for Preciptation this Winter

 

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has switched into "El Niño is here" mode, with a  63% chance of a very strong El Niño  (i.e., RONI > +2.0°C) during November-January. But just knowing what the strength of El Niño does not guarantee a particular outcome; it only tips the scale. Looking at past seven strong and very strong El Niño events, at least one year had below normal rainfall in California. (https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/ca_elnino.html)


And El Niño does NOT necessarily translate to extensive flooding in California.  Of the 13 largest flood damage years since 1950, only 4 have been El Niño years, 4 La Niña, and 5 neutral. And when you look at the Very Strong El Niño of 1997-98, it only ranks at #13, because even though many parts of the state had nearly double their normal rainfall, it was spread over about twice the number of normal rainy days. For example, SF had 47.22” vs a normal of 22.89”, and 119 days vs a normal of 71 days. See https://ggweather.com/enso/calif_flood.htm

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2285299 2026-05-01T00:07:16Z 2026-05-01T00:20:22Z Tomorrow is NATIONAL HEATSTROKE PREVENTION DAY - May 1, 2026

 

Tomorrow, Friday, May 1, 2026, is National Heatstroke Prevention Day. It's a day to raise awareness about the hazards of children dying due to heatstroke inside hot cars. Please take a moment to check out and SHARE the materials below and those at NoHeatstroke.org. Thanks for any assistance in helping to save young, precious lives!

Sadly,
Jan

Jan Null, CCM
Adjunct Professor of Meteorology
San Jose State University
jnull@noheatstroke.org   
Web: https://noheatstroke.org 
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/noheatstroke/







 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2284517 2026-04-27T23:22:46Z 2026-04-27T23:25:06Z California Precipitation and Water Supply

Despite the recent gnashing of teeth about the relatively dismal snowpack reports, California's total precipitation and reservoir storage are tracking mostly at or above normal. April's storms have kept the important Sierra Nevada and Cascade watersheds at or above normal, and these indices account for both rainfall and snowfall.  A summary of the 154 largest reservoirs in the state shows them to be at 118% of their April 26th historical average.






Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com


 

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2280383 2026-04-13T18:31:37Z 2026-04-13T18:32:29Z California Tornadoes

Following yesterday's EFU tornado near Vina, in the northeastern Sacramento Valley, there were several media comments/inquiries along the lines of "I thought California doesn't get tornadoes".  Yes, on average 6.4 tornadoes per year! I have updated the  California Tornado Climatology at https://ggweather.com/ca_tornado.htm. It contains a database of all 487 tornadoes recorded in California from 1950 through 2025. 

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com











This email was sent to jnull@noheatstroke.org
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2279199 2026-04-09T19:31:10Z 2026-04-09T19:45:04Z El Niño Update IMPORTANT NOTE for Twitter (X) followers: My @ggweather account got hacked last week. I am now @ggweather2026. Please follow and share. Thanks.

As expected, NOAA CPC issued its final La Niña Advisory and has gone into El Niño Watch mode. (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)  Their consensus modeling would have the best odds of a moderate-to- strong El Niño next late Fall and Early Winter.

But even knowing what the strength might be, does NOT necessarily foretell the temperature and precipitation outcomes. Case in point, with this year's La Niña the expectation was for Southern California to be drier than normal this winter. Instead, it is mostly 100% to 150% of normal!

And finally, there is no such thing as a "Super" El Niño! Just like the "Godzilla" El Niño of 2015, it is clickbait hyperbole. Please refrain.


]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2278517 2026-04-07T15:12:37Z 2026-04-07T15:14:14Z Latest ECMWF ENSO Plume Hyperbole

The issuance of the April ECMWF SEA5 Niño 3.4 anomaly forecast has set off a whole new wave of hyperbole about a doom-and-gloom “Super El Niño”. But, in my opinion, that needs a lot of context:

  • The ECMWF SEA5 model anomalies are still based on the 1981-2020 climatology, which is cooler than the updated 1991-2020 climatology being used elsewhere. It is also not the new Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).

  • A review of the April plumes for the past 7 years shows a pretty consistent “warm bias” versus the observed ONI (i.e., black dotted line).

  • But per this and other models, an El Niño does look likely. The strength is less so! However, even with this knowledge, the impacts of whatever El Niño strength occurs are far from clear, especially given previous events. Caveat emptor.


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
 

 








]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2273940 2026-03-23T14:28:46Z 2026-03-23T14:28:46Z ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Climatology Updates

 

ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Climatology Updates
With the advent of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI, https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm) I have updated several of my previous precipitation and temperature ENSO-related climatologies. The cautionary perspective that these products allow is that the impacts of an "average" ENSO event are really made up from a broad range of actual widely different events and that there is no "typical" event. 

El Niño and California Precipitation: By the Numbers 
https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/ca_elnino.htmlhttps://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2026/ca_lanina.html
I have added data for the 3 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Indices, as well as the maximum and minimum for each ENSO category at each location. Similarly, the La Niña site has been updated.

US Winter ENSO Anomalies maps have also been updated.
https://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_elnino_precip.htmlhttps://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_elnino_temp.htmlhttps://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_lanina_precip.htmlhttps://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_lanina_temp.html)

Main El Niño and La Niña Resource Page: https://ggweather.com/enso.htm
 
Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com

Samples:




 

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2270394 2026-03-12T13:49:29Z 2026-03-12T13:49:30Z Updated ENSO Forecast

CPC issued its new ENSO forecast today and is calling for "A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026", and "If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be "strong" during October-December." With an 83% chance it will be weak and 60% moderate. (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)

 

But there are still the problems mentioned previously of 1) the "Spring Predictability Barrier" and 2) even knowing the strength of an ENSO event, there are still a wide range of possible solutions regarding how much precipitation and where. For example: https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html

 

 

 

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2270082 2026-03-11T12:50:16Z 2026-03-11T12:50:32Z Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) replacing ONI as ENSO Metric

New El Niño and La Niña Metric – the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)


Beginning February 1st, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center will replace the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) with the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).  The new metric subtracts the overall average tropical 3-month sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from the existing Niño 3.4 regional anomaly. Per CPC: “This proposed change will have two primary benefits for ENSO monitoring and prediction: 1) the relative sea surface temperature index better identifies current and past El Niño and La Niña events because it is less sensitive to the chosen base climatology period.  This allows for comparison of events across the lengthy climate record. 2) A relative index is more related to changes in rainfall over the tropical Pacific than the traditional index.”


The new index is similar to the old, and users can use it in the same manner, with El Niño events being defined by the anomaly being ≥ +0.5°C and La Niña being ≤ -0.5°C. “Historic” El Niño and La Niña events will still be defined as at least five consecutive, overlapping 3-month anomalies.


The introduction of RONI has resulted in the recategorization of some “historic” events:
1958-1959 – Weak El Niño has been redefined to Neutral

1970-1971 - Weak La Niña has been redefined to Moderate
1971-1972 – Neutral has been redefined to Weak La Niña
1992-1993 - Neutral has been redefined to Weak El Niño
2011-2012 - Moderate La Niña has been redefined to Weak La Niña
2017-2018 - Weak La Niña has been redefined to Moderate La Niña
2019-2020 - Weak El Niño has been redefined to Neutral
2022-2023 - Weak La Niña has been redefined to Moderate
2023-2024 – Strong El Niño has been refined to Moderate El Niño
2024-2025 - Neutral has been redefined to Weak La Niña
2025-2026 - Neutral has been redefined to Weak La Niña


These categorizations mean a reevaluation of some of the historic analysis of temperatures and precipitation patterns during ENSO events under California/US Studies at https://ggweather.com/enso.htm.


Summary of Links:

 

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2200023 2025-05-25T14:16:15Z 2025-05-25T14:17:12Z Tioga

To go along with the Memorial Day Weekend to "unofficially" start summer in California, so does the opening of Tioga Pass after its winter closure. This year, they coincide with the reopening of this trans-Sierra highway schedule for tomorrow, May 26th. See https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tioga.htm from the National Park Service.

Below I have is summarized data on the winter opening and closing of this important route.

 

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2119774 2024-06-28T15:10:17Z 2024-06-28T15:14:29Z 2023-2024 Rainfall Season in Review and Comparison

Sunday, June 30th, marks the end of the California Rainfall Season that began last July 1st. This is a review of the past 12 months' precipitation and a comparison to last year and the 30-year normals. Overall, Northern California checks in close to normal, while Central and Southern California locations were above normal. In general, totals were less than the 2022-2023 rainfall season. The distribution was fairly typical for an El Niño winter, with the largest positive anomalies south of the Tehachapis. It should be noted that all three of the Sierra Precipitation Indices ended up below normal, a critical source of the State's water supply, but given last year's abundant precipitation, most reservoirs are close to full.



 













]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2117570 2024-06-19T14:05:21Z 2024-06-19T14:27:51Z 2024 Hurricane Resource Guide

With tropical storm activity beginning to ramp up, the 2024 Hurricane Resource Guide has been updated. This Guide is designed as a single source jumping off page to find current forecasts, tracks, satellite imagery, and backgrounder information for all things hurricane, typhoon, and tropical cyclone related.
 

Comments, errata and additions are always welcome.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2117091 2024-06-17T16:02:06Z 2024-06-17T16:03:18Z 2024 Fire Weather Resources

As we move further into the hotter and drier months, a critical and increasing concern is fire weather. To that end, I have updated the webpage Fire Weather Resources (http://ggweather.com/firewx.htm). Though somewhat California-centric, the page has numerous pathways to data throughout the US. 



Please let me know of any errors or omissions.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Phone: (650) 712-1876
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2115983 2024-06-12T16:05:15Z 2024-06-12T16:06:27Z Celebrating 50 Years of Meteorology

 

 

This month marks the 50th Anniversary of my graduating from UC Davis and starting my career as a meteorologist. It’s been a great journey, and I am blessed for both the challenges and friendships along the way. And to answer the inevitable question, no, I don’t plan on stopping as long as it’s fun and engaging!

I have been fortunate to parlay my 23+ years as a National Weather Service forecaster into a second career, now over 26 years, as the  founder of Golden Gate Weather Services and a successful Certified Consulting Meteorologist. I am proud of both, and they have been extremely satisfying.

My Timeline:
1974: BS Atmospheric Science, UC Davis
1974-1975: Meteorologist Intern – WFO SFO Airport
1976-1980: Meteorologist – WSFO Redwood City
1980-1983: Meteorologist-in-Charge – CWSU Oakland ARTCC
1983-1994: Lead Forecaster – WSFO Redwood City
1994-1997: Lead Forecaster – WSFO Monterey
1998-present: Founder – Golden Gate Weather Services

Along the way I have been able to teach, both formally and informally, this subject that I love, as well as working on a variety of exciting projects.
also…
1987-2014: Lecturer/Adjunct Professor – SF State University
1999-2000:  Director of Meteorology, Planetweather.com
1998-2004: Columnist, San Jose Mercury News, “The Weather Corner”
2014-present: Lecturer/Adjunct Professor - SJ State University

For over the past 23 years that has included a passion project of studying the meteorology and circumstances surrounding the tragedy of hot car child deaths. Hopefully this research will provide information (see https://www.noheatstroke.org/) will help save some precious young lives.

National Awards and Highlights:
1996: AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist
2011: NWA Public Education Award, for “… awareness of the dangers of hyperthermia …”
2013: NHTSA Public Service Award, for “… exceptional commitment, vision and tireless work to raise public awareness on the issue of heatstroke”
2015: U.S. Congressional Briefing- “The Impacts of El Niño on the U.S.”
2023: AMS Henry T. Harrison Award for Outstanding Contributions by a Consulting Meteorologist
 

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2115406 2024-06-10T15:13:34Z 2024-06-10T15:14:42Z California Precipitation and Temperature Normals

I have put together a page for quick and easy access to monthly California precipitation and temperature normals (1991-2020). Note that I have sorted the precipitation data by the California rainfall season of July to June. 



Main Page
- Precipitation
- Maximum Temperatures
- MinimumTemperatures
- Mean Temperatures

I have formatted the pages so that they should simply cut-and-paste directly into a spreadsheet, but if you have an issue drop me a note and I will send you the Excel files.

Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather


 






This email was sent to jnull@ggweather.com
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
Golden Gate Weather Services · PO Box 3373 · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019 · USA

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2092068 2024-02-22T23:27:44Z 2024-02-22T23:29:42Z The 8-Station Index Reaches 100% of Normal

The 8-Station Index has reached 100% of normal for the first time this winter.  

The 8SI Sierra Nevada Precipitation Index is arguably the single most important metric of California water supply. It’s a snapshot of the overall wetness that includes both snowpack and rainfall for the major watersheds of the upper Sacramento, Feather, Yuba, and American Rivers. These in turn feed into some of the largest of the California reservoirs (i.e., Shasta, Oroville, and Folsom).



As of February 21, 2024, the seasonal (i.e., July 1 to June 30) rainfall was 35.14”, compared to a normal of 35.12” for this date. [Normal for the entire July 1 to June 30 season is 52.81".]



Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Office: (650) 712-1876
Mobile: (510) 928-2824
Email:
jnull@ggweather.com
Web:
http://ggweather.com

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2030214 2023-09-28T14:38:41Z 2023-09-28T14:45:15Z El Niño Winter Forecasts - Past and Present


 

This is a consolidation of the forecasts for last winter (2022-2023) and what eventually occurred as well as five of the forecasts for this upcoming winter (2023-2024). They are in two sets, one for the period of December-January-February (DJF) and then January, February-March (JFM). All of the forecasts from last year and this year were made in September. (In another post, I will look at how some of the forecasts evolved through subsequent months). I will leave it to the viewer to evaluate the veracity of last winter's forecasts. 


]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/2027780 2023-09-21T15:42:48Z 2023-09-21T15:51:49Z Half Moon Bay Buoy Returns to Service with a Saildrone


Since 1980, the Half Moon Bay Buoy (officially National Buoy Data Center #46012) has been monitoring weather, sea, and wave conditions off the coast. Besides being used by meteorologists for their forecasts, fishermen, boaters, surfers, and scientists rely on it to monitor conditions. Anchored about 24 miles west-southwest of Pillar Point, the buoy collects and transmits a wide array of meteorological and oceanographic parameters (i.e., wind speed, wind direction, wind gusts, air temperature, dew point temperature, sea temperature, sea-level pressure, significant wave height, average wave period and dominant wave period) that is archived by the National Buoy Data Center.

In February Buoy 46012 failed and was towed to port.  Earlier this month, as an interim measure, the buoy was replaced with a Saildrone; an uncrewed data-collecting platform that will monitor the same parameters that the previous buoy did. Saildrones are made by an Alameda company, Saildrone Inc. They are bright red vessels, with a 23-foot-long double-kayak body topped by a sail containing an array of sensors and solar panels. In addition to taking stationary buoy measurements, there are literally fleets of Saildrones deployed around the world’s oceans collecting data for a wide array of scientific missions. See https://www.cnet.com/science/autonomous-saildrones-are-the-newest-weapon-in-fighting-climate-change/

The Half Moon Bay Saildrone will be active until at least June 2024. At that time it is to be decided by the National Weather Service if a buoy will be redeployed.


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather


 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1994179 2023-06-30T04:44:49Z 2023-06-30T04:47:09Z 2022-2023 California Rainfall Season in Review

Today marks the end of the very impressively wet 2022-2023 California rainfall season which began on July 1st. [See https://ggweather.posthaven.com/rainfall-season-vs-water-year for a discussion of why this differs from the Water Year traditionally used by hydrologists]. And while the rainfall totals are huge compared to recent years, they fell well short of being the all-time wettest. Additional links to some of this data can be found at: https://ggweather.com/ca2022rain.htm and https://ggweather.com/seasonal_rain.htm. 




 








]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1993784 2023-06-28T22:59:44Z 2023-06-28T22:59:45Z Background Info re Hot Car Child Deaths Background Info re Hot Car Child Deaths

 

With some warm to hot weather (finlly) on tap for the inland parts of SF Bay Area and interior California, the risk of hyperthermia and possibly heatstroke rises for children, pets, and the elderly. Below are a couple of fact sheets that I hope you will share. There is also a wealth of information available at https://www.noheatstroke.org/ that can be freely used and shared. And by just the right person seeing it, you might save a life.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Phone: (650) 712-1876
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1988087 2023-06-14T18:11:29Z 2023-06-14T18:40:52Z Meteorologist's Links

Spurred on by the NWS changing many of the URL's for a lot of their text products, I've updated and made some additions to my METEOROLOGIST'S LINKS page at:https://ggweather.com/home.html

Many on this email distribution are aware of this page which has been evolving for probably 20 years with handy links to products that I use almost daily. There are also links here to a number of the other resource pages that I hope are useful compilations in a single source. Enjoy.
T-Storm/Tornado Linkshttp://ggweather.com/tornado.htm
Hurricane Links
http://ggweather.com/hurricane.htm
Fire Weather Links
http://ggweather.com/firewx.htm
El Nino/La NIña Links
http://ggweather.com/enso.htm

Please let me know if you find any errors, broken links, or additional sites that may be of interest to meteorologists and the media.

 


 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1984208 2023-06-05T16:25:34Z 2023-06-05T19:32:16Z Developing El Niño Comparisons

The eastern tropical Pacific continues to warm toward a likely El Niño event later this summer that is then forecast to continue through the winter. For the first time in 3 years, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has moved back into positive territory. (See https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)

This warming is seen in all the Niño Regions with the most dramatic rise in Niño 1+2 off the South American coast where the anomalies are about +2.5 °C. 



Comparing the current event to the two previous “very strong” El Niños in late May of 1997 and 2015 shows several differences. Currently, this year has not warmed as much in the west as prior years. It also shows 2015 as more of a Central Pacific event, with more similarity between 1997 and 2023.


It will be interesting to see how the current event develops over the next six months. Stay tuned.
 
Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1979410 2023-05-24T15:48:36Z 2023-05-24T15:50:37Z Are California Coastal Water Temperatures Warmer During El Niño?

 

Media reports of late, and during past El Niño events, have attributed the presence of warm water species of marine life along the California coast to El Niño. However, a look at the data doesn't support that conjecture. Contextually, the sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with El Niño occurs in the tropical Pacific, approximately 3,000 miles away from California, plus there is no physical process where that equatorial water is transported to the California coast. And in the short-term, the current El Niño has not even officially formed yet, and most waters along the California coast are below normal.

Historically, during El Niño winters, there are just about equal chances of coastal water temperatures being above or below normal. The following analysis was done by looking at two separate areas along the California coast. In Northern/Central California the study area was a 2-degree square (36° to 38° N and 122° to 124° W) between about Point Reyes and Big Sur and about 100 miles offshore. In Southern California, the area was a 2-degree square (32° to 34° N and 117° to 119° W) between about Santa Barbara and San Diego and about 100 miles offshore,

During the 13 El Niño events since 1980, sorted by strength, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northern area were only warmer than normal in 6 of the 13 years.

And along the southern California coast, the El Niño year SSTAs were warmer than normal in 7 of the 13 years.


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather

 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1976955 2023-05-16T19:07:51Z 2023-05-16T19:17:40Z Updated El Niño Precipitation and Temperature Anomaly Maps

I have updated the climatologies of previous El Niño precipitation and temperature anomaly maps, with all new graphics and now using "percent of normal" data. For example, below are the precipitation anomaly maps for the last two strong El Niño's; highlighting that even with a specific ENSO category there can be very large differences. 
PRECIPITATION - https://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_elnino_precip.html
TEMPERATURE - https://ggweather.com/enso2023/us_elnino_temp.html
ENSO Resource Page - https://ggweather.com/enso.htm


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Email: jnull@ggweather.com
Web: http://ggweather.com
Twitter: @ggweather


 

]]>
Jan Null
tag:ggweather.posthaven.com,2013:Post/1974009 2023-05-08T16:03:20Z 2023-05-08T16:16:32Z When Will Tioga Pass Open in 2023?

Due to this year's epic Central Sierra Nevada snowpack, current estimates from Yosemite National Park are that Tioga Pass will open later than usual this year; possibly not until July. To put this year into context, below is what has happened in previous years. 






]]>
Jan Null