Models Even Stronger with Upcoming El Nino - Golden Gate Weather Services

Models Even Stronger with Upcoming El Nino

Models Even Stronger with Upcoming El Nino

The just released IRI/CPC mid-June ENSO Prediction Plume forecasts an even from stronger El Niño event than the previous two months. And this forecast is important in that it is past the Spring Predictability Barrier. Here is a comparison of the last three dynamic model plume forecasts.

The current mean of the 17 dynamic forecast models is 1.8 in the October-November-December period, but in looking at the individual members that make up the mean, there are seven of the models that exceed 2.0, including the Japanese model (2.7), NASA (2.5) and both NOAA and ECMWF at 2.4.

And now the usual caveat that El Niño does NOT guarantee any particular meteorological outcome, for example above normal rainfall in California. However, the stronger the El Niño event (i.e. ONI) the higher the probability of above normal rain in California and other impacts in the United States and other parts of the world. See El Niño / La Niña Winter Historic Precipitation & Temperatures and Climatology of El Niño Events and California Precipitation.

Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
http://ggweather.com

Jan Null

Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for over four-nine decades and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. Twenty-six years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24-year career with the National Weather Service. Mr. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. Jan has also been an Adjunct Professor and Lecturer at San Francisco and San Jose State Universities where he taught one evening a week for nearly 30 years. In 1998, Jan founded Golden Gate Weather Services, a consulting firm that specializes in forensic meteorology. He frequently serves as an expert witness in litigation where the weather is a factor. This often involves reconstructing past weather events or as his wife refers to it: “CSI Weather”. Mr. Null is also an internationally recognized expert of the sad topic of the heatstroke deaths of children in vehicles. After the death of a child left a vehicle in San Jose in 2001 he did a comprehensive study of vehicle temperatures that was ultimately published in Pediatrics in 2005. Since that time he has spoken at numerous national conferences and worked with a wide variety of child safety advocacy groups and agencies to raise awareness about the dozens of children who die from hyperthermia in hot vehicles each year. This data continues to be updated at NOHeatstroke.org. In his spare time he is a serious amateur photographer, specializing in wildlife and landscapes. Jan is married to Susan Hollis, a lifelong Saratoga resident and Realtor. He has two adult children in the Bay Area and the world’s most adorable 9-year old granddaughter and 4-year grandson.

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