El Niño Just Keeps Hanging On

Meteorologists are singing the Supreme's 1967 song "You Keep Me Hangin' On" as the current weak El Niño just won't go away.

The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) checked in at the minimal 0.5 level for JFM to remain barely in the weak El Nino category. This is now the 5th consecutive 3-month period at or above that threshold making this now an "official" El Nino event.

The latest CPC El Nino Advisory keeps a 70% chance of at least a minimal El Niño continuing through the summer and a 60% chance through next autumn. And the IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume  actually shows a slight warming of the ONI through the next 6 months.

It is relatively rare that a warm ENSO event persists from one winter through the summer months into the following winter. Since 1950 the only three previous instances were the weak 1953-54 El Niño that lasted into the 1954-55 winter and then the moderate 1968-69 and 1986-87 events that also persisted into the following winter. (http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)


Jan Null, CCM
Golden Gate Weather